By Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch
Two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the restoration of a permanent presence for the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean, Cypriot Defence Minister Fotis Fotiu told journalists that he was ‘studying the possibility’ of permitting Russian military aircraft to use Paphos airbase and Russian warships to use the port of Limassol.
Fotiu met Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu during his recent visit to Moscow and Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulidesas recently met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in St. Petersburg. Fotiu said that “Russia supports Cyprus and our close relationship will not only continue, but also to deepen”. Shoigu is expected to visit Cyprus soon for more talks with Fotiou.
Almost a year ago, in July 2012, when asked about the possibility of a permanent Russian naval presence on the island’s southern coast following a meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, the then Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis said: “There’s no way that’s going to happen”.
Moscow last year provided Nicosia with a $3.3 billion loan, and Cyprus sought to restructure it as it debated whether to accept the harsh conditions of a $13 billion bailout from the European Union. A study by a group of economists from Russia, Finland and Canada has revealed that Russians have transferred over $30 billion (around $1 trillion roubles) to Cyprus over the past twenty years. The authors of the report claim that investors from Cyprus and the British Virgin Islands are linked to corruption and use Cyprus as a filter for money laundering. Writing in Forbes Magazine, Tim Worstall states: “I’m really very unconvinced that the use of Cyprus was to gain cleaned money from corruption: rather, to gain a clean legal system to protect from it.”
Fotiu said: “There is no exchange principle here. Facilities in our ports will be given to the Russians just as they are given in other countries. It is the same as the United States, which uses such port facilities in European countries such as France and Germany and in Israel.” Russian officials have indicated that a draft agreement envisions significant military and defence cooperation with Cyprus and could result in eventual Russian military deployment, ‘but not a permanent military presence’. The agreement is likely to be regarded with suspicion by NATO as the UK maintains army and air force bases on Cyprus, which have also been used by the United States military.
The Russian Defence Ministry announced on 27 June that the Syrian port of Tartus would remain as Russia’s naval base in the Mediterranean, despite reports suggesting the withdrawal of all non-diplomatic personnel had brought its use to an end. However, Margarete Klein of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs says that Moscow may need to find an alternative to its base in Syria, depending on the outcome of the civil war there, and as part of a plan to build up its naval forces in the region.
It has been noted that Russia’s navy is paying an increasing number of visits to Cypriot ports. On 19 June, three warships docked in Limassol to refuel and replenish supplies, as did the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser ‘Moscow’ in May. This month, Moscow will take command of the Russian Navy’s 16 ships in the Mediterranean.
It is expected that a military cooperation agreement could be signed within the coming months. On 6 June it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced that Russia will maintain a permanent naval flotilla in the Mediterranean as it is “a strategically important region and we have tasks to carry out there to provide for the national security of the Russian Federation”. Klein thinks that the Russian policy is more “about sending a clear signal” as the planned military presence is “not very big”. Russian journalist and analyst Alexander Golz agreed with her assessment saying: “The task of the Mediterranean fleet will be to show its presence”, pointing out that the Russian Navy lacks modern warships. Neither Klein nor Golz thought Russian warships would participate in the Syria conflict. ‘NATO needn’t worry’, they said.
James Ker-Lindsay, from the London School of Economics accepts that a permanent Russian military base in Cyprus is unlikely but suggests that closer military ties might call into question Cyprus’s relationship with NATO as there had been talk of the island joining the Partnership for Peace programme and eventually becoming a Member State. He added that “many in the EU will feel deeply uncomfortable about the thought of closer defence and security ties between Cyprus and Russia”.
NATO Watch reviewed these issues in our briefing in March this year ‘Russia moving into the Mediterranean and perhaps into partnership with Cyprus?’ We suggested that: As President Putin has declared that Tartus is critical to Moscow’s security strategy and as Russia is actively supporting NATO’s anti-piracy operations in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and off the Somali coastline, it might be the case that Russia is interested in developing its facility in Syria and developing new facilities elsewhere in the Mediterranean. In Cyprus, perhaps?
John Koenig, the US Ambassador in Nicosia, welcomed Cyprus’ commitment to strengthen ties with NATO. He also called for careful planning of the new government’s stated goal of joining NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme. He added that the US has had “a very consistent policy with regard to the development of the offshore resources of Cyprus. We support Cyprus’ right to explore and develop those resources. We also at the same time do encourage all parties involved in this issue to do nothing that would increase tensions”.
In response to a journalist’s question during his Monthly Press Conference on 6 May, NATO Secretary General Rasmussen said that: “To fundamentally solve the problems in the relationship between NATO and the European Union, we need a solution to the Cyprus problem. And I really urge all parties in Cyprus to move forward; find a solution; reunify the island. A lot is at stake also economically. And I think both parts of the island would profit from a reunification. There are natural resources that could be exploited if they find each other. And on top of that, we could also move forward politically when it comes the partnership between NATO and the European Union.”
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